Within Project Mogul Balloon
Could Flight 4 Really Reach the Roswell Ranch?
Researchers used old wind data, tracking memories and nearby flight records to test whether the lost balloon could have reached the Foster ranch.
On this page
- The proposed launch and last known observations
- Reconstructing winds, altitude and direction
- What the route calculation can and cannot prove
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Introduction
The leading Project Mogul explanation for the Roswell debris depends heavily on a single question: could the balloon train commonly known as Flight 4 have drifted from its launch area near Alamogordo to the Foster ranch, where rancher W.W. Brazel found scattered debris? Because no complete tracking record survives for that flight, researchers did not simply follow a documented path. Instead, they reconstructed a probable route by combining surviving launch notes, weather records, upper-air wind data, recollections from Project Mogul personnel and the behaviour of neighbouring balloon flights. The result is not a confirmed flight path but a historically informed reconstruction intended to test whether the journey was physically plausible rather than to prove that it happened.[NSA]nsa.govreport af roswellREPORT OF AIR FORCE RESEARCH REGARDING THEMarch 24, 2018…
The proposed launch and last known observations
The reconstruction begins with one of the most disputed episodes in the Project Mogul record. The US Air Force’s 1994 Roswell report identified a balloon launch on 4 June 1947 as the most likely source of the Roswell debris. That conclusion relied heavily on the field diary of geophysicist Albert P. Crary, which records activity on that date, including the release of a balloon cluster carrying a sonobuoy after planned operations were disrupted by cloud cover. The Air Force interpreted this launch as the operational flight later designated Flight 4, even though surviving documentation is incomplete.[NSA]nsa.govreport af roswellREPORT OF AIR FORCE RESEARCH REGARDING THEMarch 24, 2018…
The principal difficulty is that Flight 4 was never recovered by the New York University balloon team, leaving no direct record of its landing site. Unlike later flights that carried more comprehensive tracking equipment and generated better documentation, Flight 4 disappeared from the historical record shortly after launch. This absence of evidence made later reconstruction necessary rather than optional.[NSA]nsa.govreport af roswellREPORT OF AIR FORCE RESEARCH REGARDING THEMarch 24, 2018…
Researchers therefore had to infer where the balloon travelled by examining what is known about the launch conditions, the equipment believed to have been attached, and the behaviour of comparable Mogul flights conducted before and after 4 June.
Reconstructing winds, altitude and direction
The most detailed reconstruction was undertaken by Charles B. Moore, one of the original Project Mogul engineers. After publication of the Air Force report, Moore revisited the surviving records to determine whether Flight 4 could realistically have reached the Roswell area. His objective was not to recreate every moment of the flight but to determine whether critics were correct in claiming that prevailing winds made such a journey impossible.[LiquiSearch]liquisearch.comLiqui Search Air Force Reports On The Roswell UFO IncidentAir Force Reports On The Roswell UFO Incident - Mogul Flight 4 Reconstruction…
Moore argued that simple surface wind measurements were inadequate because Mogul balloon trains climbed through several atmospheric layers before spending most of their flight in the lower stratosphere. In early June over New Mexico, winds near the ground could differ markedly from those several kilometres above. According to Moore’s experience with the programme, summer stratospheric winds generally carried balloons eastward, meaning that ground-level observations alone could not eliminate the Foster ranch as a potential destination.[LiquiSearch]liquisearch.comLiqui Search Air Force Reports On The Roswell UFO IncidentAir Force Reports On The Roswell UFO Incident - Mogul Flight 4 Reconstruction…
To estimate the route, Moore combined several types of evidence:
- surviving launch times recorded in Crary’s diary;
- historical weather observations and upper-air wind measurements;
- tracking information preserved from Flights 5 and 6, which served as reference cases;
- knowledge of the ascent rate and operating altitude of Mogul balloon trains;
- corrections to apparent errors in the original tracking calculations, including adjustments involving magnetic declination.[LiquiSearch]liquisearch.comLiqui Search Air Force Reports On The Roswell UFO IncidentAir Force Reports On The Roswell UFO Incident - Mogul Flight 4 Reconstruction…
Rather than projecting a straight line across New Mexico, the reconstruction model estimated how long the balloon would spend climbing, when it would enter stronger upper-level winds and how those winds would alter its heading before eventual descent or structural failure. Because the balloon train consisted of numerous connected balloons and suspended equipment, its behaviour differed from that of a single weather balloon.
Moore concluded that a reconstructed trajectory brought Flight 4 close enough to the Foster ranch that it could not be dismissed as the source of the debris. Importantly, he presented this as a test of plausibility rather than an exact recreation of the flight.[LiquiSearch]liquisearch.comLiqui Search Air Force Reports On The Roswell UFO IncidentAir Force Reports On The Roswell UFO Incident - Mogul Flight 4 Reconstruction…
What the route calculation can and cannot prove
The reconstructed flight path strengthened the Mogul explanation in one important respect: it showed that atmospheric conditions did not automatically rule out a balloon launched on 4 June reaching the Roswell region. Before Moore’s work, some critics had argued that the known winds made such a journey impossible. His modelling challenged that claim by incorporating the vertical structure of the atmosphere rather than relying solely on surface observations.[LiquiSearch]liquisearch.comLiqui Search Air Force Reports On The Roswell UFO IncidentAir Force Reports On The Roswell UFO Incident - Mogul Flight 4 Reconstruction…
However, the reconstruction has clear limitations.
First, no continuous tracking record survives for Flight 4. Without radar fixes, telemetry or recovery records, no model can establish its precise route with certainty. The calculation therefore depends on assumptions drawn from nearby flights and historical weather data rather than direct observations.[NSA]nsa.govreport af roswellREPORT OF AIR FORCE RESEARCH REGARDING THEMarch 24, 2018…
Second, the interpretation of the surviving documentary evidence remains disputed. Critics argue that Crary’s diary suggests the planned Mogul flight was cancelled because of cloud cover and that only a simpler balloon cluster was launched, raising questions about whether the reconstructed Flight 4 matched the configuration proposed by the Air Force. Supporters respond that the diary records an actual launch and that later documentation reasonably identifies this as the missing service flight.[NSA]nsa.govreport af roswellREPORT OF AIR FORCE RESEARCH REGARDING THEMarch 24, 2018…
Finally, even if the reconstructed path is broadly accurate, it cannot demonstrate that the debris found by Brazel definitely came from that balloon. Wind modelling establishes possibility rather than identity. Other evidence—such as descriptions of the recovered materials, the timing of debris discovery and the characteristics of Mogul equipment—must be considered alongside the reconstructed trajectory when evaluating the explanation.[Muller Lab]muller.lbl.govMuller Lab Project MogulMuller Lab Project Mogul
Why the reconstruction remains significant
The Flight 4 reconstruction illustrates how historians and investigators address an event for which critical records are missing. Rather than relying on a single surviving document, the proposed route was assembled from independent strands of evidence: operational diaries, atmospheric science, engineering knowledge and comparison with neighbouring flights.
Its principal contribution is therefore modest but important. The reconstruction does not prove that Flight 4 landed on the Foster ranch, nor does it conclusively settle the Roswell debate. Instead, it addresses a narrower evidential question by showing that, based on the available meteorological and operational evidence, a Project Mogul balloon launched on 4 June 1947 could plausibly have travelled to the area where the debris was later reported. Whether that possibility represents the actual historical event remains the central point of disagreement between supporters of the Mogul explanation and its critics.[liquisearch.com]liquisearch.comLiqui Search Air Force Reports On The Roswell UFO IncidentAir Force Reports On The Roswell UFO Incident - Mogul Flight 4 Reconstruction…
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Endnotes
1.
Source: nsa.gov
Title: report af roswell
Link:https://www.nsa.gov/portals/75/documents/news-features/declassified-documents/ufo/report_af_roswell.pdf
Source snippet
REPORT OF AIR FORCE RESEARCH REGARDING THEMarch 24, 2018...
Published: March 24, 2018
2.
Source: liquisearch.com
Title: Liqui Search Air Force Reports On [The Roswell UFO]({{ ‘the-roswell-ufo/’ | relative_url }}) Incident
Link:https://www.liquisearch.com/air_force_reports_on_the_roswell_ufo_incident/mogul_flight_4_reconstruction
Source snippet
Air Force Reports On The Roswell UFO Incident - Mogul Flight 4 Reconstruction...
3.
Source: muller.lbl.gov
Title: Muller Lab Project Mogul
Link:https://muller.lbl.gov/teaching/physics10/Roswell/USMogulReport.html
4.
Source: muller.lbl.gov
Title: [Roswell Incident]({{ ‘the-1980-book/’ | relative_url }})
Link:https://muller.lbl.gov/teaching/physics10/Roswell/RoswellIncident.html
Additional References
5.
Source: dchieftain.com
Link:https://www.dchieftain.com/features/the-roswell-incident-has-a-socorro-connection/article_bc70ac95-5695-5f72-96c1-123b9866a2a0.html
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The “Roswell Incident” has a Socorro Connection | Features | dchieftain.comJuly 8, 2021 — The first attempts to deploy microphones to det...
Published: July 8, 2021
6.
Source: unsolvedreport.com
Title: Here’s every version the government put on the record, what it was mean
Link:https://unsolvedreport.com/en/roswell-incident-1947/
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Roswell Incident 1947: The Government's Story Changed 4 Times | Unsolved ReportMay 19, 2026 — THE FOUR OFFICIAL STORIES, SIDE BY SIDE Ros...
Published: May 19, 2026
7.
Source: scribd.com
Title: Roswell Report: Fact vs
Link:https://www.scribd.com/document/831210606/Roswel-Fact-or-Fiction
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Fiction | PDF | [Unidentified]({{ 'unidentified/' | relative_url }}) Flying ObjectJanuary 1, 1995 — NOTE: TECHNICAL REPORT NO. 1, TABLE VII, "SUMMARY OF NYU CONSTANT-LEVEL Ballo...
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Title: The explanation was
Link:https://www.apeirron.com/node/roswell
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The Roswell Incident — ApeirronMarch 31, 2026 — PROJECT MOGUL — THE GOVERNMENT'S SECOND EXPLANATION For forty-seven years — from 1947 to...
Published: March 31, 2026
9.
Source: youtube.com
Title: Bizarre Details About Roswell That Still Don’t Make Sense
Link:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-HoQFNIwm5c
Source snippet
The [Roswell UFO Crash]({{ 'roswell-ufo-crash/' | relative_url }}): Uncovering the Truth Behind the Legend...
10.
Source: youtube.com
Title: Government Secrets and UFOs | Roswell | FULL DOCUMENTARY
Link:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ym-fFM6TeGE
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Bizarre Details About Roswell That Still Don't Make Sense...
11.
Source: ufologie.patrickgross.org
Link:https://ufologie.patrickgross.org/rw/d/si1995davethomas.htm
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UFOS at close sight: Roswell 1947, ufologists investigations, Mogul advocates, Dave Thomas, 1995July 1, 1995 — ROSWELL 1947 - MOGUL ADVOC...
Published: July 1, 1995
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Source: en-academic.com
Link:https://en-academic.com/dic.nsf/enwiki/3827739/
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Source: uapcodex.org
Link:https://uapcodex.org/es/cases/roswell-1947/
14.
Source: af.mil
Link:https://www.af.mil/The-Roswell-Report/trk/public_post_comment-text/